Although Billy Crystal is back to restore some semblance of order as the host after last year’s Anne Hathaway/James Franco debacle, I think that this year’s show is going to have a foreign feel to it. It won’t be as bad as the NBA Draft usually is, but it will be close.
And now on to my preview/predictions…
Best Picture
The Artist
A silent film star struggles to adjust to the new era of talkies as a rising female actress starts to steal the spotlight. This film is the odds on favorite to win.
The Descendants
Definitely my favorite of the films I’ve seen. In it, George Clooney has to tell his friends and family members that his wife, who he recently found out cheated on him and is in a coma after a boating accident, is dying while simultaneously having to make an important decision about a large piece of land that’s been past down in his family for generations.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
People are really eating up this 9/11 centric film. I, for one, think it looks terrible, but it’s definitely not politically correct to say that this movie sucks because its plot is so tied to our jingoistic culture.
The Help
An up and coming writing decided to write a book about how the African American maids feel about their white employers in the 1960s. This film is definitely the dark horse (pun clearly intended) for Best Picture. After all, it did win the top prize at the Screen Actor’s Guild awards.
Hugo
Believe it or not this film has nothing to do with the famous author Victor Hugo (Les Miserables, The Hunchback of Notre Dame) like I originally thought. It’s a PG film with a child protagonist who’s trying to figure out a message from his late father, so in many ways it’s just like Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, but Hugo was directed by Martin Scorsese.
Midnight in Paris
A Woody Allen film in which an engaged couple go with the bride-to-be’s parents on a trip to Paris. As the groom in waiting falls in love with the city’s nightlife he realizes that he’s also falling out of love with his fiancée.
Moneyball
For starters, I know it’s a nerd thing to say, but the book was better. That said, I’m impressed that a book, albeit a sports one, that was so numbers based was successfully turned into a decent film. I’m also glad that they didn’t alter the ending and have the Oakland Athletics win the AL or the World Series.
The Tree of Life
If someone could explain what the fuck is going on in this movie I would greatly appreciate it. I seriously haven’t seen a movie this bad since Joe Dirt (2001).
War Horse
One of my male friends told me balled his eyes out at this film directed by Stephen Spielberg, so I’ll assume that it’s awful. I’ve disliked people’s fascination with horses for a long time. For example, I never understood the public outpouring when the horse Barbaro had to be put down. How does a horse garner so many fans across the country? Like, who would send flowers to a horse that they’ve never seen in person?
Which film should win? The Descendants
Which film will win? The Artist
Best Actor
Demian Bichir in A Better Life- In this film Bilchir plays an illegal immigrant landscaper (stereotype much) living in LA who works tirelessly to provide a future for his son, but his son gets involved with some local gangs.
George Clooney in The Descendants- Clooney is the odds on favorite to win and if he does it will be well deserved. He nailed his character’s outward stoicism while also revealing the built up angst, anger, worry, fear, sadness, and exhaustion that his character was dealing with internally.
Jean Dujardin in The Artist- Some think that Clooney will edge out Dujardin for Best Actor because The Artist is going to win in so many other categories, but his performance was so unique that I think he’ll come out on top.
Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy- In this film Oldman plays a retired spy who’s brought back into the fold by the British government during the height of the Cold War to figure out which one of their current MI6 agents is actually working for Russia. This movie looks awesome.
Brad Pitt in Moneyball- I thought Pitt’s portrayal of Billy Beane was one of the highlights of the film, but I don’t think it was good enough to win Best Actor.
Which actor should win? George Clooney in The Descendants
Which actor will win? Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Best Actress
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs- She plays a female servant living in Ireland in the late 1800s who disguises herself as a man. That’s all you need to know.
Viola Davis in The Help- I haven’t seen the film, but I know that she’s going to win. Also, if I'm not mistaken she could be just the second African American woman (Halle Berry) to win the most prestigious award in acting.
Rooney Mara in The Girl in the Dragon Tattoo- The 26-year-old actress with rich football blood played the title role in The Girl in the Dragon Tattoo and she played it well. The character she knocked out of the park is a dark, deft, socially awkward investigator with an axe to grind.
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady- She plays former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Hence the nomination.
Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn- Back to back years with a Best Actress nomination for Heath Ledger’s widow (they were engaged, so is widow the right word?). Last year it was for her role in the indie film Blue Valentine. This year it’s for playing Marilyn Monroe.
Which actress should win? Rooney Mara in The Girl in the Dragon Tattoo
Which actress will win? Viola Davis in The Help
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn- Branagh plays an English film maker who struggles to keep Marilyn Monroe in line as his lead actress.
Jonah Hill in Moneyball- He plays a sabermetrician, based on a real person, who inspires Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane to re-evaluate how he builds a baseball team. The film was flawed in many ways (no mention of Hudson, Zito, and Mulder?) and I personally didn’t think that Jonah Hill did anything to warrant an Oscar nomination.
Nick Nolte in Warrior- The man with the most famous mug shot of all time plays an alcoholic former boxer tasked with training his ex-patriot son who’s struggling financially to compete in MMA.
Christopher Plummer in Beginners- In this film Plummer plays an elderly man with terminal cancer who tells his son that he’s gay despite being married to his late wife for 40+ years.
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close- Originally I thought this was the kid and I was going to rant about how it’s bullshit that he got nominated in this category because he’s the main character. Sydow actually plays a man who helps the kid figure out what his late dad’s message is and he apparently doesn’t speak. He has the word “Yes” written on one hand and the word “No” written on the other. If this fact didn’t prove how terrible this film is I don’t know what will.
Which actor do I want to win? Nick Nolte in Warrior
Which actor is going to win? Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo in The Artist- I haven’t seen the film, but she’s the female lead, so I’m going to go ahead and disregard her nomination.
Jessica Chastain in The Help- She plays one of the white women. She has no chance.
Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids- She won an Emmy last year for her role in the CBS comedy Mike and Molly (I know no one that watches that show), but she’s not going to win an Oscar for her role in Bridesmaids. She was funny, but I had heard great things and she didn’t live up to my expectations. Plus, female humor is not nearly as funny as male humor.
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs- She didn’t even make the first 15 actors/actresses listed on IMDB from the film, so I’m definitely rooting for her even though she’s British.
Octavia Spencer in The Help- She plays one of the black maids. She’s going to win.
Which actress should win? No clue and I don’t really care
Which actress is going to win? Octavia Spencer in The Help
Best Director (or as l like to call it- “The five movies that would have been nominated for Best Picture had the Academy stuck with the format of only nominating 5 films”)
Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris- Woody Allen, who’s 76 (I would have guessed 63), hasn’t won this award since 1978 (Annie Hall) and he’s not going to win it this year either.
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist- If you direct a silent film that garners this much critical acclaim you must have done something right.
Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life- There’s a 20 minute interlude that looks like a mixture of screensavers from 2003 about 20 minutes into this film that I don’t think I would understand even if Malick was in the room to explain it to me.
Alexander Payne for The Descendants- I think this movie was more plot driven than anything else. I guess it’s a compliment sometimes when you don’t notice the work of the director, but I don’t think that it’s the case here.
Martin Scorsese for Hugo- I’m sure that the film is great, but I get the feeling that Marty, and to the same token Woody Allen, gets nominated so often because of their stature. It’s almost like how Derek Jeter won a bunch of Golden Gloves even those he’s a horrendous defensive shortstop.
Which director should win? Michel Hazanavicius
Which director will win? Michel Hazanavicius
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