Playoff Preview

Lost in the shuffle of the NFL draft and the NHL playoffs is the fact that the NBA playoffs start today. The abridged 66 game season is over and it’s time to raise the level of intensity up a notch. For those of you that were wondering (and I assume that it was none of you) I successfully predicted that 14 of the 16 teams left would make the playoffs in my pre-season post last December.

Although I just humblebragged my pre-season picks I do not claim to be any sort of authority on the NBA. I will say that most people my age like college basketball a lot more than the NBA. They cast off the NBA and say that the players don’t care enough, “no one plays defense”, etc. 1.) They’re wrong. 2.) I like the NBA a lot more than college basketball, but again I am no sage. That won’t stop me from filling out my NBA playoff bracket for you right here and now, though.

Let’s start in the East…

First Round

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Philadelphia 76ers- Reigning MVP Derrick Rose missed 27 games this season and the Bulls are somehow better than they were a year ago. This does not bode well for the 76ers. Philadelphia started hot (10-3), but they faded down the stretch (lost 8 of their last 14). The problem with the 76ers is that they don’t have a go to scorer. They have a bunch of young, promising players, but no one is elite. When Chicago puts the clamps down I think they’ll struggle to score. The Pick- Chicago in 5

(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks have the better record, but the Celtics get home court advantage because they won the Atlantic Division. The Celtics have looked like a completely different team in the 2nd half thanks to the dynamic play of Rajon Rondo and the decision to move Kevin Garnett to the 5. The Hawks are a solid outfit, but Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and company just aren’t enough to match up with Rondo, Ray Allen (coming off the bench because of the development of Avery Bradley), Paul Pierce, and KG. The pick- Boston in 6

(3) Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Orlando Magic- This is easily the most boring matchup of the first round. The Pacers are a young upstart group led by their fiery coach Frank Vogel and the Magic are playing without Dwight Howard. I think the Magic, who have playoff experience, will galvanize without Dwight and push the youthful Pacers to the brink. The pick- Indiana in 7

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) New York Knicks- The Knicks have been a much better team defensively all year (and even more so when Mike Woodson took over as head coach), but the Heat have elite scoring options. The matchups for the Knicks on the defensive end aren’t terrible (Melo on LeBron, Shumpert on D-Wade, and Chandler on Bosh), but the Heat get after it defensively as well. Miami has been spotty all year, but I think that they’ll stride into a different gear in the post season. The pick- Miami in 5

Conference Semi-Finals

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Boston Celtics- While moving KG to the 5 has re-energized The Big Ticket it was a move made mostly out of desperation. The Celtics frontcourt has been decimated by injuries all year (Jeff Green, Jermaine O’Neal) and I don’t think that they have enough in the frontcourt to bang with the Bulls. The pick- Chicago in 6

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Indiana Pacers- The Pacers are a great, and under covered, story, but they are simply no match for the Heat. The pick- Miami in 4

Conference Finals

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (2) Miami Heat- The Heat beat the Bulls in 5 in the Conference Finals last year and each team has gotten better. The big question for Chicago is whether or not they have enough offensive firepower outside of Derrick Rose. Carlos Boozer is an undersized 4 who is somewhat crafty around the basket, Luol Deng is a versatile 3, but he doesn’t have an elite skill, and Rip Hamilton has a mid range game that I dream about, but he can’t create his own shot. When LeBron locks down D Rose in the 4th quarter the Bulls will rely on one of the aforementioned players to step it up. Sure they’ve been doing it all year with Rose sidelined due to injury, but I don’t think they’ll have enough against a supremely long and athletic Miami Heat team. The pick- Miami in 5



And now for the West…

First Round

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Utah Jazz- The Spurs were upset as the 1 seed and it’s not going to happen again. I like the Utah frontcourt of Paul Milsap, Al Jefferson, and Derrick Favors, but Gregg Popovich has been resting the original big three and Tony Parker, Manu Ginoboli, and Tim Duncan will be ready to go. The pick- San Antonio in 5

(4) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers- This is the most intriguing first round matchup and I can see it going either way. Memphis’ frontcourt of Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol is dominant. In the backcourt Mike Conley Jr. has taken the next step, Tony Allen is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and OJ Mayo provides some firepower off the bench. The Clippers have Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and not much else. Caron Butler is nice, but he’s only a shade of what he once was. Randy Foye can light it up, but not if Tony Allen is defending him. DeAndre Jordan serves his purpose as a defender/rebounder, but he’ll have his hands full with Gasol and won’t be able to help Blake/Kenyon Martin defend Z-Bo. The pick- Memphis in 7

(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets- No Metta World Peace for the Lakers, which is good news for Danilo Gallinari and the Nuggets, but I’m not sure that it will be enough. Denver has a lot of nice pieces (Lawson, Afflalo, Gallo, Faried, Al Harrington, etc.), but how do they stop Kobe, Pau, and Bynum? Plus, the Lakers aren’t a revolving door defensively at the point guard position anymore. The pick- Lakers in 5

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks- The defending champs have been an abject disaster all year and I don’t see them putting up much of a fight in this one. The Mavs core of Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki, and Brendan Haywood are 39, 34, 35, 33, and 32 respectively. The Thunder’s core of Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and Kendrick Perkins are 23, 22, 23, 22, and 27 respectively. I’ll take the young guys in a rout. The pick- Oklahoma City in 4

Conference Semi-Finals

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Memphis Grizzlies- The Spurs have found young, energetic guys to fill in the holes around Tony Parker, Manu, and The Big Fundamental like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Tiago Splitter, but I’m worried that they won’t be able to defend the paint well enough to advance. The Spurs will be looking to avenge last year’s first round upset, but I think the key to last year’s series (points in the paint) will again be the difference. Say what you will about Zach Randolph, but he’s an absolute beast on the block. The pick- Memphis in 6

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) Los Angeles Lakers- The Thunder want the Lakers bad. They feel like they need to beat the Lake Show to prove to the world that they have arrived. They went and got Kendrick Perkins after the Lakers dominated them in the low post in 2010. They acquired former Lakers guard Derek Fisher to add a much needed veteran presence. I think this year is the year for OKC. The pick- Oklahoma City in 6

Conference Finals

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Memphis Grizzlies- The Grizz can bang down low and they can defend, but the Thunder present a unique challenge because they can defend the post and can score like no one else (outside of the Heat) from the perimeter. Tony Allen is great defender and can probably minimize the effectiveness of Russell Westbrook, but who guards the 3-time scoring champ Kevin Durant? Shane Battier is no longer there. Sam Young is no longer there. The first thing you want to do when you face the Thunder is stop Durant and if you can’t do that you’re in trouble. The pick- Oklahoma City in 5

NBA Finals

(2) Miami Heat vs. (2) Oklahoma City Thunder- This is the matchup that most people have been clamoring for. Both teams have elite scorers, freak athletes, length, and end to end speed. The matchups are pretty even, but I give the edge to the Heat because they can throw LeBron and Battier at Durant and I don’t think that OKC has an answer for LeBron. Durant just isn’t there as a defender quite yet and I think that will be their undoing. This is the “year of no excuses” for LeBron and he won’t need any because the Heat are going to get it done. The pick- Miami in 6

Not one…