Week 5 NFL Picks

Cardinals -1.5 at Rams- The Cardinals hadn’t lost yet (3-1 ATS), so I was either going to keep picking them to win or keep picking them to lose. I took the wrong path.

at Redskins +3 vs. Falcons- Robert Griffin III is 4th in the NFL with a 103.2 quarterback rating. Andrew Luck is 24th with a QB rating of 75.4. Don’t you feel like we’d be hearing a lottt more about Luck if those numbers were reversed? By the way, I’m 0-4 picking Falcons games against the spread so far, so I’ll take the points and hope they finally lose.

at Steelers -3.5 vs. Eagles- The Eagles have won three coin flip games so far this season (1 point wins over Cleveland and Baltimore and last week’s 2 point win over the Giants), but their luck will run out this week against a well rested Pittsburgh team who will finally have the services of James Harrison and Rashard Mendenhall.

Packers -7 at Colts- The Green Bay offense sure seems to be clicking now, although they did play the porous Saints defense last week, and I don’t think Andrew Luck has enough around him to get into a shoot out with Rodgers.

Browns +8 at Giants- This line opened at 10, so the public likes the Browns, which means that I should be all over my Giants, but these are the type of games that the G-Men struggle with. I see a 21-17 Big Blue win, but it’s going to be an ugly affair in the swamps of northern New Jersey.

at Vikings -6 vs. Titans- It’s hard to believe that the Vikings are 6 point favorites against anyone after the season they had last year, but they have something going with Ponder, Percy, and Peterson. Throw in the fact that they wear purple and there’s alliteration everywhere. The only way the Titans win is if Matt Hasselbeck lights it up because Chris Johnson will be going nowhere against the stout Vikings rush defense.

at Bengals -3 vs. Dolphins- Miami has been a lot better than I thought, but I think Cincinnati’s the better team and they’re at home.

Ravens -6.5 at Chiefs- I’m 0-4 picking Kansas City games this year, so clearly I have absolutely no read on that team. The Ravens have had 10 days off and they know they didn’t play well against the Browns, so I expect to see a heavy dose of Ray Rice in a Ravens rout. (Someone stop the alliteration)

Seahawks +2.5 at Panthers- I continue to think that people over value the Panthers because they’re aware of how dynamic Cam Newton is. Carolina is 1-3 and their one win came against the winless Saints. I’ll gladly take the points and the better team.

at Jaguars +6 vs. Bears- It’s a short week for the Bears who are still riding high off their Monday night win in Dallas. This game has let down written all over it.

at Patriots -6.5 vs. Broncos- The expectation is that it’ll be a close game with the Brady vs. Manning hype, but I see the Patriots pulling away in the 2nd half and winning 34-21.

at 49ers -10 vs. Bills- I usually take the points with double digit spreads, but I don’t see the Bills offense getting much done on the road in San Francisco.

Chargers +3.5 at Saints- The crowd will be electric with Sean Payton in the building and Drew Brees trying to break Johnny Unitas’ record, but until they win a game I can’t, in good conscience, lay more than a field goal.

Texans -9 at Jets- They can’t make this line high enough. The Jets offense has zero chance of moving the ball against the Texans defense. This game has all the makings of a blow out followed by a full week of “should Tebow start in Week 6 against the Colts?”

Last week- 8-6-1
Season- 29-31-3