It seems trivial, but think about it. We don’t check Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram for roughly two hours. In today’s day and age that’s incredible. The only other time I’m free of social media for that long is when I’m asleep.
When we go to the movies we willingly allow ourselves to be taken to a different world. Sometimes it’s not much different from the world we occupy on a daily basis. Other times it’s a world our ancestors experienced or someone’s projection of the world that our descendants will live in. For a few hours we’re totally immersed in that other world and once we’re snapped back to reality we’re left feeling different (in some way) than when we entered.
This Sunday marks the 85th presentation of the Academy Awards, so let’s celebrate the year’s best in film the only way I know how: with fairly obvious predictions. This year I enter Oscars Week having seen 6 of the 9 films nominated for Best Picture. That gives me a pretty solid foundation from which to make my predictions. For those keeping track at home I’m 19 of 22 in my picks over the last four years (6 for 6 last year).
Best Picture
Amour
It’s a French film about old people. No thanks.
Argo
Six U.S. delegates are hiding out in the Canadian ambassador’s house during the Iran hostage crisis in 1979 and a C.I.A. operative (Ben Affleck) hatches a scheme involving a fake movie to get them out of the country. I’m a sucker for politics and all things Ben Affleck, so this movie is right in my wheelhouse. Initially it did not appear to be on the right trajectory to win the Oscar, but it’s gained an avalanche of support during awards season (it won the Golden Globe and SAG) and now looks like the front runner.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
I saw this movie last week and I think it went over my head. A five-year-old girl, your protagonist, lives on the wrong side of a levee on the Mississippi river with her father, who’s ingrained in her a sense of pride for where she comes from. Eventually their environment floods and her father gets sick and dies. Roll credits.
Django Unchained
I’m not a big Tarantino guy, but Django was highly entertaining. A bounty hunter employs a former slave and the two try to free the former slave’s wife from a corrupt Southern gentleman played by Leonardo DiCaprio. The movie is chock full of killing, blatant racism, and terrific acting performances. Django has virtually no chance to win the Oscar, but Christoph Waltz should win Best Supporting Actor (even though he was essentially the main character).
Les Miserables
I have not seen this film, but we were forced to watch a previous version in religion class back in high school. All I remember is that a poor man, named Jean Valjean, steals a loaf of bread and a guard goes out of his way to arrest him for it.
Life of Pi
From what I can tell this movie is like the Jungle Book/Tarzan on steroids. Evidently a boy survives a shipwreck and becomes best friends with a tiger on a remote island. It doesn’t seem like my kind of movie, but one of my friends raves about it.
Lincoln
This Spielberg production focuses on the passing of the 13th amendment to the U.S. Constitution (you know, the one that abolished slavery). It’s highly dramatized, long (it doesn’t drag, though), and has quite a few one liners. I’m glad I saw it, but it has zero re-watchability. I will never see it again or as much as watch on scene on HBO, Showtime, Starz, etc. It was thought to be the favorite to win Best Picture, but there’s been little to no buzz about the film in the past few months.
Silver Linings Playbook
A bi-polar adult (Bradley Cooper) leaves a psychiatric center to move back in with his parents and as he struggles to get back on his feet and adjust to reality he befriends a female (Jennifer Lawrence) who’s going through her own emotional problems. They cope with their respective illnesses together and eventually fall in love. I like Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence a lot, so I had high expectations for this movie, which is never a good thing. Low and behold my expectations were met. Cooper is phenomenal during the first half of it and then Lawrence steals the show.
Zero Dark Thirty
This film is essentially an acted out documentary of the hunt and capture of Osama Bin Laden. I’m into the behind the scenes political stuff, so I was interested all the way through, but plenty of people have knocked the film for its lack of character and plot development. I’m sure there was a little jingoism behind the nomination, but I contend that the movie is truly deserving of one of the nine spots this year. By the way, I still have no idea what the title of the movie means.
Which movie would I vote for? Argo
Which movie will win? Argo
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook- It’s the best performance on Cooper’s sneaky good resume. Actually, no it’s not. His best performance is, and always will be, Sack in Wedding Crashers.
Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln- He’s so convincing as Lincoln that you completely forget that it’s Daniel Day-Lewis portraying our 16th president. This is his award to lose.
Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables- Apparently he sings a lot, so if you’re in to that, then check it out. I don’t mean to disparage Jackman because he seems like an awesome guy based on the interviews that I’ve seen him in, but I tend to stay away from musicals if I can help it.
Joaquin Phoenix in The Master- So much for retiring from acting, right? This is the one film that I have not seen, but wish I had before the writing of this post. I’ve heard that Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman are amazing and I don’t doubt it for a second. I also heard that the movie makes you think long after you see it, which should be the goal of every filmmaker.
Denzel Washington in Flight- Denzel’s outstanding as an airline pilot who somehow crash landed a plane while he was hammered, but the film falls a little short.
Which of the five is the most likely to get me to see a movie? Denzel Washington
Who’s going to win? Daniel Day-Lewis and if he does he’ll become the first to win for a third time (8 others have won twice).
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty- She’s definitely an up an coming actress, but this role didn’t really show off her full range or ability. She was good, but her character was simply one note.
Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook- She makes this challenging role look easy. It’s not forced or over rehearsed. It’s subtle, but very impactful. She delivers on all of the biggest moments, as well as the smallest ones. I hope she’s got a speech planned for Sunday.
Emmanuelle Riva in Amour- All I can tell you is that at 85 she’s the oldest actress to ever be nominated for Best Actress.
Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild- Conversely Wallis, at 9 years old, is the youngest to ever be nominated for Best Actress.
Naomi Watts in The Impossible- Watts plays a mother who’s on vacation in Thailand with her family when a tsunami hits. It’s based on a true story. I haven’t seen it, but I’m sure she’s fantastic.
Who should win? Jennifer Lawrence
Who’s going to win? Jennifer Lawrence
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin in Argo- Arkin plays the producer of the fake movie, which serves as the cover to getting the U.S. delegates out of Iran. He’s not on the screen very much and when he is he’s good, but not Oscar good.
Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook- De Niro plays Bradley Cooper’s gambling addict of a father and he’s really not that great. I think this was just a legacy nomination (like Derek Jeter winning a Gold Glove).
Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master- I assume he’s unbelievably good as the founder of Scientology.
Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln- He’s very good as the influential Congressman Thaddeus Stevens and would be the odds on favorite to take home the hardware if not for the gentlemen listed below him.
Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained- Waltz, who won this award in 2009 for his role in a different Tarantino film (Inglourious Bastards), is great in Django, but he’s basically the main character. I think Leonardo DiCaprio should have been nominated in this category instead.
Who would win if DiCaprio were nominated instead of Waltz? Tommy Lee Jones
Who’s going to win? Christoph Waltz
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in The Master- It seems like she gets nominated every year for something, but never wins. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
Sally Field in Lincoln- Mary Todd Lincoln was bat shit crazy and Mrs. Field does a good job of demonstrating that. She probably has the second best odds to win, but you’d be crazy to take them.
Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables- I’d be completely stunned if she didn’t win. I’m talking like Oscar Pistorious when he realized that he killed his girlfriend level stunned.
Helent Hunt in The Sessions- Good to see that Helen Hunt is still getting some work. She was one of the top three actresses going in the late ‘90s.
Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook- She played Bradley Cooper’s mother and while she was solid she wasn’t anything spectacular.
Which of the five would I most like to sleep with in their prime? Helen Hunt, but it’s close. PS- If you don't think I Googled pictures of a young Jacki Weaver you're crazy.
Who’s going to win? Anne Hathaway
Best Director
Michael Haneke for Amour- He has virtually no chance. The foreign thing was cool a year ago.
Ang Lee for Life of Pi- Most likely in the #2 spot right now and making a charge, but I don’t think it’ll be enough.
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook- Unfortunately I think the actors (Cooper and Lawrence) are getting all of the credit for this film.
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln- I think he’s the favorite because all of the Best Picture buzz dissipated, so voters may have compensated in this category. He’s lucky Affleck got snubbed 9 ways to Sunday.
Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild- Let’s just put him in the “happy to be nominated” department.
Who should win? Ang Lee
Who’s going to win? Steven Spielberg
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