Oscars 2011

The year in film will be celebrated this Sunday night as the 83^rd annual Academy Awards will be held in Los Angeles. That means that I'm running out of time for my annual Oscars preview/prediction post. For those keeping track at home (me) I am 10 for 11 in my Oscar predictions. Last year all the buzz was centered around the James Cameron(Avatar)/Kathyrn Bigelow(The Hurt Locker) competition for Best Picture and Best Director. Bigelow, Cameron's 3rd wife, bested her former beau in both categories and became the first woman ever to win Best Director. This year there is no self made rivalry, but the Best Picture race is seemingly again down to two. This year's frontrunners are both based on true events. The leader in the clubhouse seems to be The King's Speech which tells the tale of King George VI overcoming his stammer thanks to his unlicensed speech therapist. The film took home top honors at the Screen Actors Guild Awards in late January. The likeliest film to unseat The King's Speech for Best Picture is The Social Network which (loosely) recounts the origination of the social networking behemoth Facebook. Word on the street is that there will be a much younger feel to the awards this year. Much of this is probably just speculation based on the hosts of this year's festivities: James Franco and Anne Hathaway.

With that all said, it's time to hand out the hardware. Last year I had only seen 3 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture before the awards. I went 6 for 6 in my predictions. This year I've seen 9 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture. I'm not sure if I can go 6 for 6 again (I'm only unsure of my Best Picture pick). Let's give it a shot either way.

Best Picture

Black Swan

This film is both physically and emotionally painful to watch, but it's also very good. Good enough to win? Probably not. My brother Pat characterized it in three words, "it's fucked up".


The Fighter



My favorite film of the year because it was real (based on a true story). Boxing movies have been produced ad nauseum over the last 30 years, but this one was less about the actual boxing and more about family, fame, making your own decisions, blind loyalty, and overcoming hardships at every turn.


Inception



An intriguing mind thriller that starred the best in the business (Leonardo DiCaprio) and sparked more cooler talk conversations than any other movie in recent memory.


The Kids Are All Right



A lesbian couple each has a child from the same sperm donor and when the kids grow up and meet the their biological father he briefly becomes a part of their life. Misleading title?


The King's Speech



As my buddy Frank recently tweeted, "The King's Speech is g-gr-gr-gre-great."


127 Hours



The only one of the ten that I have yet to see. That should tell you that my expectations aren't too high. James Franco plays a man who gets stuck in-between a rock and a hard place (literally) for 5 and a half days. I've heard good things, but it has zero chance of winning.


The Social Network



The story of how Facebook was formed. Although many would contend that much of the film is inaccurate it has the potential to be the most influential movie of the year because of the ever growing popularity of the social networking site.


Toy Story 3



A borderline touching tale of growing up, moving on, and discovering new ways to be happy. Absolutely tremendous for an animated film. PS- Yes, I work for Disney.


True Grit



Surprisingly this is not just a token nomination because it was directed by the Coen brothers. A 14-year old in late 19^th century Arkansas is out to avenge her father's murder, so she hires a grizzly, old U.S. Marshall to track down the killer.


Winter's Bone



A 17-year old girl who's raising her younger brother and sister because her mother is a wacko (sits around in the house all day) has to prove that her father is dead in order to retain their family's home and land. Bring a pillow.


What movie should win? The Fighter

What movie will win? The Social Network


Best Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem in Biutiful- I just watched the trailer for this movie and I have no idea what it's about. All I know is that Bardem was a bit of a surprise nominee. Many thought that Ryan Gosling would pick up the 5^th nomination for his role in Blue Valentine. Bottom line, Bardem isn't going to win, but he did just father a child with Penelope Cruz, so at least he's got that to celebrate.

Jeff Bridges in True Grit- If he were to take home the hardware he'd become the 10^th two time winner and the 3^rd to win the award in back to back years (Spencer Tracy 1937-38 and Tom Hanks 1993-94).

Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network- Mark Zuckerberg may have invented the most influential social medium to date, but that doesn't change the fact that he's a big douche.

Colin Firth in The King's Speech- How Firth was able to deliver this constant stammer is nothing short of remarkable. At first I took it for granted, but thinking back it's award winning stuff.

James Franco in 127 Hours- No host has ever won an award of any kind, so Franco's chances aren't looking too good. He definitely railed Anne Hathaway though, so he got that going for him.





Which actor should win? Colin Firth in The King's Speech

Which actor will win? Colin Firth in The King's Speech


Best Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right- Bening plays a lesbian mother who is particularly perturbed by the emergence of the sperm donor in her children's lives. She was good and probably has the best shot at unseating the presumptive winner Portman, but Julianne Moore, who played her partner, was pretty darn good too.

Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole- Apparently she's a really good actress (this is her 3^rd Best Actress nomination, she won in 2002 for her role in The Hours), but I'm on the fence as to whether or not she's hot. Call me crazy, but I'm going with not.

Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone- She's 20 and she's a babe, but she's not going to win. Not for nothing she becomes the first ever Best Actress nominee born in the '90's.

Natalie Portman in Black Swan- Portman plays a veteran ballerina cast to play the lead role in Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake in which she has to exhibit two different personas. She dives head first into the role and soon becomes bruised and battered both physically and emotionally. Not only is she an almost certainty to win, but she's engaged and pregnant with the choreographer's baby.

Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine- Her ex-fiance Heath Ledger posthumously won an Oscar in 2009 for Best Supporting Actor, so if she wins on Sunday then their child would almost certainly be destined for greatness…or a drug overdose.





Which actress should win? Natalie Portman in Black Swan

Which actress will win? Natalie Portman in Black Swan


Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale in The Fighter- Bale is scary good in this film. Not only did he lose 35+ pounds for the role. He also has a better Boston accent than Mark Wahlberg and Bale is English. Also, the brother of the man he portrays has said that Bale is more Dicky than Dicky. I'm not sure if I've ever seen a better supporting performance in my life.

John Hawkes in Winter's Bone- Who would ever have thought that Kenny Powers' brother would be nominated for an Academy Award?

Jeremy Renner in The Town- The star of last year's Best Picture winner is the only nominee from the latest Ben Affleck joint. The Town is very entertaining, but I'd have to say that it's also a little overrated. And you know how much I love Affleck.

Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right- Ruffalo plays a sperm donor who is tracked down by his biological children. Over the course of a summer he becomes a significant figure in their lives, as well as the lives of their moms, but he eventually lets them down.

Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech- If not for Christian Bale's once in a lifetime performance this would be Rush's award to lose.





Which actor should win? Christian Bale in The Fighter and Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech

Which actor will win? Christian Bale in The Fighter


Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in The Fighter- I love Amy Adams and I loved The Fighter, but I didn't think that she was that great in it.

Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech- I haven't seen her since Fight Club, so it was nice to know that she's still in the game, but I also recently found out that she's married to Tim Burton which is a little lot weird to me.

Melissa Leo in The Fighter- She plays the mother-manager-matriarch of a boxing family in Massachusetts. She is both stubborn and destructive as she clearly favors one son to another while trying to convince the son she favors less to see things her way. She should win this award easily.

Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit- 1.) She was the protagonist/lead actress. Literally on the screen for 98% of the film. There's no way that you could convince me that she was in any way a "supporting actress". 2.) She's 14 years old. Grow up Peter Pan.

Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom- I knew that the Disney Theme Park was just a movie set and that the tigers and lions on the safari ride were fake. You can't fool me Mom and Dad.





Which actress should win? Melissa Leo in The Fighter

Which actress will win? Melissa Leo in The Fighter


Last year I also previewed and predicted the Best Director winner because of the James Cameron/Katherine Bigelow sub-plot. Well I successfully predicted that Bigelow would win, so let's ride the momentum and try to go for two in a row.

Best Director (otherwise known as the 5 movies that would have been nominated for Best Picture if the Academy didn't expand to 10 only because The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008)

Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan- I think he should win going away for this reason and this reason alone. He puts the audience in the mind of the protagonist. We feel and experience virtually everything that Natalie Portman's character does. There's this overriding, palpable sense of tension hanging in the balance throughout the entire film. When she pulls skin off her own back we wince in pain, when she becomes delusional we are confused, and when she finally experiences her release we do as well.

David O. Russell for The Fighter- I gotta give it up to Russell for the way he intertwined the fight scenes with other moments that were key in plot development. My favorite scene of the year in any film (outside of the Natalie Portman/Mila Kunis sex scene) is when Dicky is in jail talking to his mother on the phone while Mickey is getting his ass kicked in a fight.

Tom Hooper for The King's Speech- Apparently this movie was filmed on a gay porn set, so let's hope that Hooper doesn't win.

David Fincher for The Social Network- I think the star of the film is really Aaron Sorkin's screenplay filled with its incendiary dialogue, but Fincher is going to get a lot of love for the way he told the story visually both inside and outside the board room.

Joel and Ethan Coen for True Grit- Plain and simple, The Academy has a raging hard on for the Coen brothers.



Darren Aronofsky

Which director should win? Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan

Which director will win? David Fincher for The Social Network

Leading Role: Christian Bale

Although 1.) he's a bit of a hot head and 2.) he's never been nominated for a major acting award (Golden Globe/Academy Award) until now, Christian Bale has had one hell of a career. He's never in the elite actor conversation, but his resume is starting to stack up.

Normally I put a Leading Role together when I don't have any other blog ideas (is it possible that I only did 2 in 2010?), but after seeing Christian Bale's performance in The Fighter it seemed necessary (the idea was actually suggested by my man Gens, a loyal reader and friend of the blog). If you haven't seen The Fighter yet you're wasting your time reading this. Head to the theater. Christian Bale is almost certainly going to win the Golden Globe and Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. More on this later.

It's time to decide which of Bale's roles was his finest. In case you've forgotten, Leading Role works like this. Let's say that Christian Bale flips out on the set of his next movie (and clearly this wouldn't be out of the ordinary) and decides to walk away from acting all together (a la Joaquin Phoenix). Which of his previous roles would then be considered his magnum opus? Which would he be most closely associated with? For Bale, I think it really comes down to just two choices, but here are four nominees.


1.) Patrick Bateman in American Psycho (2000)



In this film Bale plays a yuppie investment banker who's obsessed with his outward image. He stresses over the font on his business card and which restaurants he can secure reservations at. The stress of maintaining this upscale persona eventually drives him into a psychopathic rage.

Most Memorable Lines:

Patrick Bateman: I live in the American Gardens Building on W. 81st Street on the 11th floor. My name is Patrick Bateman. I'm 27 years old. I believe in taking care of myself and a balanced diet and rigorous exercise routine. In the morning if my face is a little puffy I'll put on an ice pack while doing stomach crunches. I can do 1000 now. After I remove the ice pack I use a deep pore cleanser lotion. In the shower I use a water activated gel cleanser, then a honey almond body scrub, and on the face an exfoliating gel scrub. Then I apply an herb-mint facial mask which I leave on for 10 minutes while I prepare the rest of my routine. I always use an after shave lotion with little or no alcohol, because alcohol dries your face out and makes you look older. Then moisturizer, then an anti-aging eye balm followed by a final moisturizing protective lotion.

Patrick Bateman: I have to return some videotapes.

Patrick Bateman: Paul Allen has mistaken me for this dickhead Marcus Halberstram. It seems logical because Marcus also works at P&P and in fact does the same exact thing I do and he also has a penchant for Valentino suits and Oliver Peoples glasses. Marcus and I even go to the same barber, although I have a slightly better haircut.

Patrick Bateman: Do you like Phil Collins? I've been a big Genesis fan ever since the release of their 1980 album, Duke. Before that, I really didn't understand any of their work. Too artsy, too intellectual. It was on Duke where Phil Collins' presence became more apparent. I think Invisible Touch was the group's undisputed masterpiece. It's an epic meditation on intangibility. At the same time, it deepens and enriches the meaning of the preceding three albums. Christy, take off your robe. Listen to the brilliant ensemble playing of Banks, Collins and Rutherford. You can practically hear every nuance of every instrument. Sabrina, remove your dress. In terms of lyrical craftsmanship, the sheer songwriting, this album hits a new peak of professionalism. Sabrina, why don't you, uh, dance a little. Take the lyrics to Land of Confusion. In this song, Phil Collins addresses the problems of abusive political authority. In Too Deep is the most moving pop song of the 1980s, about monogamy and commitment. The song is extremely uplifting. Their lyrics are as positive and affirmative as anything I've heard in rock. Christy, get down on your knees so Sabrina can see your asshole. Phil Collins' solo career seems to be more commercial and therefore more satisfying, in a narrower way. Especially songs like In the Air Tonight and Against All Odds. Sabrina, don't just stare at it, eat it. But I also think Phil Collins works best within the confines of the group, than as a solo artist, and I stress the word artist. This is Sussudio, a great, great song, a personal favorite.

Patrick Bateman: I want you to clean your vagina.

Patrick Bateman: You're a fucking ugly bitch. I want to stab you to death, and then play around with your blood.

Patrick Bateman: I have all the characteristics of a human being: blood, flesh, skin, hair; but not a single, clear, identifiable emotion, except for greed and disgust. Something horrible is happening inside of me and I don't know why. My nightly bloodlust has overflown into my days. I feel lethal, on the verge of frenzy. I think my mask of sanity is about to slip.

Patrick Bateman: There are no more barriers to cross. All I have in common with the uncontrollable and the insane, the vicious and the evil, all the mayhem I have caused and my utter indifference toward it I have now surpassed. My pain is constant and sharp and I do not hope for a better world for anyone, in fact I want my pain to be inflicted on others. I want no one to escape, but even after admitting this there is no catharsis, my punishment continues to elude me and I gain no deeper knowledge of myself; no new knowledge can be extracted from my telling. This confession has meant nothing.

Patrick Bateman: Harold, it's Bateman, Patrick Bateman. You're my lawyer so I think you should know: I've killed a lot of people. Some girls in the apartment uptown uh, some homeless people maybe 5 or 10 um an NYU girl I met in Central Park. I left her in a parking lot behind some donut shop. I killed Bethany, my old girlfriend, with a nail gun, and some man uh some old faggot with a dog last week. I killed another girl with a chainsaw, I had to, she almost got away and uh someone else there I can't remember maybe a model, but she's dead too. And Paul Allen. I killed Paul Allen with an axe in the face, his body is dissolving in a bathtub in Hell's Kitchen. I don't want to leave anything out here. I guess I've killed maybe 20 people, maybe 40. I have tapes of a lot of it, uh some of the girls have seen the tapes. I even, um... I ate some of their brains, and I tried to cook a little. Tonight I, uh, I just had to kill a LOT of people. And I'm not sure I'm gonna get away with it this time. I guess I'll uh, I mean, ah, I guess I'm a pretty uh, I mean I guess I'm a pretty sick guy. So, if you get back tomorrow, I may show up at Harry's Bar, so you know, keep your eyes open.

Synopsis: I associate Bale with this role so much that everytime I type Bale I almost type Bateman instead. Patrick Bateman has become something of a cult hero among Americans in their 20's and 30's. I guess they can relate to the inner monologues and strange desire to murder annoying co-workers. Either way this self obsessed, neurotic, fantastical behavior seems very becoming of Bale and for that I think this is one of the two roles that he will be remembered for.


2.) Alfred Borden in The Prestige (2006)



In this film Bale plays a rival magician opposite Hugh Jackman living and performing in London in the late 1800's. The ability of Bale's character to perform a crowd attracting illusion drives Jackman's character mad trying to figure out the secret behind it.

Most Memorable Lines:

Alfred Borden: The secret impresses no one. The trick you use it for is everything.

Alfred Borden: Never show anyone. They'll beg you and they'll flatter you for the secret, but as soon as you give it up... you'll be nothing to them.

Alfred Borden: You went half way around the world... you spent a fortune... you did terrible things... really terrible things Robert, and all for nothing.

Synopsis: I don't think this was so much a great role for Bale as it was a great movie. I usually strongly dislike movies that aren't set in the present day (or close to it), but this film bucked that trend. Bale's character is central to the plot of the movie, although Jackman's is the protaganist, but the role doesn't exactly call for extraordinary acting ability. I can easily see people forgetting that it was Bale that played opposite of Jackman in this film and for that reason I can't proclaim this as his finest role.


3.) Bruce Wayne/Batman in The Dark Knight (2008)



In this film, one of my top ten of the past decade, Bale plays the billionaire industrialist and philanthropist Bruce Wayne as well as his alter ego, Batman (although Bale was surprisingly not credited for the role of Batman).

Most Memorable Lines:

Harvey Dent: The famous Bruce Wayne. Rachel's told me everything about you.
Bruce Wayne: I certainly hope not.

Alfred Pennyworth: I suppose they'll lock me up as well. As your accomplice...
Bruce Wayne: Accomplice? I'm going to tell them the whole thing was your idea.

The Joker: Oh, you. You just couldn't let me go, could you? This is what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. You are truly incorruptible, aren't you? Huh? You won't kill me out of some misplaced sense of self-righteousness. And I won't kill you because you're just too much fun. I think you and I are destined to do this forever.
Batman: You'll be in a padded cell forever.
The Joker: Maybe we can share one. You know, they'll be doubling up, the rate this city's inhabitants are losing their minds.
Batman: This city just showed you that it's full of people ready to believe in good.
The Joker: Until their spirit breaks completely. Until they get a good look at the real Harvey Dent and all the heroic things he's done. You didn't think I'd risk losing the battle for Gotham's soul in a fistfight with you? No. You need an ace in the hole. Mine's Harvey.
Batman: What did you do?
The Joker: I took Gotham's white knight and I brought him down to our level. It wasn't hard. You see, madness, as you know, is like gravity. All it takes is a little push!

Batman: You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain. I can do those things because I'm not a hero, like Dent. I killed those people. That's what I can be
Lt. James Gordon: No, you can't! You're not!
Batman: I'm whatever Gotham needs me to be.
Lt. James Gordon: They'll hunt you.
Batman: You'll hunt me. You'll condemn me. Set the dogs on me. Because that's what needs to happen.
Batman: Because sometimes the truth isn't good enough, sometimes people deserve more. Batman: Sometimes people deserve to have their faith rewarded...

Synopsis: Not only did Heath Ledger's Joker steal the show, but there isn't too much to the character of Bruce Wayne. He's an arrogant rich guy who flaunts his wealth. Plus Batman's morality is demonstrated more through his actions than his words. In this instance Bale's character is outshadowed by the film's greatness, which isn't exactly the worst thing in the world.


4.) Dicky Eklund in The Fighter (2010)



Bale plays Dicky Eklund, former professional boxer turned crack addict who serves as the trainer for his younger brother Mickey, who is an up and coming boxer himself.

Most Memorable Lines:

Dicky Eklund: This is my younger brother. Taught him everything he knows.

Dicky Eklund: Head, body, head.

Dicky Eklund: Mickey has a chance to do something that I never did and he needs me.

Dicky Eklund: This is your time. I had my turn and I blew it. You don’t have to.

Synopsis: Not only did I not want to ruin the movie for those of you that haven't seen it, but there are 4-5 other memorable quotes that I couldn't remember verbatim and couldn't find online. That said, Bale really got into character for this role. He lost an absurd amount of weight (something he's done before for The Machinist), nailed the mannerisms of Eklund- they show the real Eklund as the credits role, and had a better Boston accent than Mark Wahlberg. This is the first role of Bale's that has received critical acclaim and I think that he's the sure fire Oscar winner. It only makes sense then that this is the role he would be most remembered for.


My apologies to Bale's roles in Reign of Fire (2002), The Machinist (2004), 3:10 to Yuma (2007), and Public Enemies (2009) as I have not seen the films, but I highly doubt that any of them were as memorable as his work in American Psycho and The Fighter.