With that all said, it's time to hand out the hardware. Last year I had only seen 3 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture before the awards. I went 6 for 6 in my predictions. This year I've seen 9 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture. I'm not sure if I can go 6 for 6 again (I'm only unsure of my Best Picture pick). Let's give it a shot either way.
Best Picture
Black Swan
This film is both physically and emotionally painful to watch, but it's also very good. Good enough to win? Probably not. My brother Pat characterized it in three words, "it's fucked up".
The Fighter
My favorite film of the year because it was real (based on a true story). Boxing movies have been produced ad nauseum over the last 30 years, but this one was less about the actual boxing and more about family, fame, making your own decisions, blind loyalty, and overcoming hardships at every turn.
Inception
An intriguing mind thriller that starred the best in the business (Leonardo DiCaprio) and sparked more cooler talk conversations than any other movie in recent memory.
The Kids Are All Right
A lesbian couple each has a child from the same sperm donor and when the kids grow up and meet the their biological father he briefly becomes a part of their life. Misleading title?
The King's Speech
As my buddy Frank recently tweeted, "The King's Speech is g-gr-gr-gre-great."
127 Hours
The only one of the ten that I have yet to see. That should tell you that my expectations aren't too high. James Franco plays a man who gets stuck in-between a rock and a hard place (literally) for 5 and a half days. I've heard good things, but it has zero chance of winning.
The Social Network
The story of how Facebook was formed. Although many would contend that much of the film is inaccurate it has the potential to be the most influential movie of the year because of the ever growing popularity of the social networking site.
Toy Story 3
A borderline touching tale of growing up, moving on, and discovering new ways to be happy. Absolutely tremendous for an animated film. PS- Yes, I work for Disney.
True Grit
Surprisingly this is not just a token nomination because it was directed by the Coen brothers. A 14-year old in late 19th century Arkansas is out to avenge her father's murder, so she hires a grizzly, old U.S. Marshall to track down the killer.
Winter's Bone
A 17-year old girl who's raising her younger brother and sister because her mother is a wacko (sits around in the house all day) has to prove that her father is dead in order to retain their family's home and land. Bring a pillow.
What movie should win? The Fighter
What movie will win? The Social Network
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in Biutiful- I just watched the trailer for this movie and I have no idea what it's about. All I know is that Bardem was a bit of a surprise nominee. Many thought that Ryan Gosling would pick up the 5th nomination for his role in Blue Valentine. Bottom line, Bardem isn't going to win, but he did just father a child with Penelope Cruz, so at least he's got that to celebrate.
Jeff Bridges in True Grit- If he were to take home the hardware he'd become the 10th two time winner and the 3rd to win the award in back to back years (Spencer Tracy 1937-38 and Tom Hanks 1993-94).
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network- Mark Zuckerberg may have invented the most influential social medium to date, but that doesn't change the fact that he's a big douche.
Colin Firth in The King's Speech- How Firth was able to deliver this constant stammer is nothing short of remarkable. At first I took it for granted, but thinking back it's award winning stuff.
James Franco in 127 Hours- No host has ever won an award of any kind, so Franco's chances aren't looking too good. He definitely railed Anne Hathaway though, so he got that going for him.
Which actor should win? Colin Firth in The King's Speech
Which actor will win? Colin Firth in The King's Speech
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right- Bening plays a lesbian mother who is particularly perturbed by the emergence of the sperm donor in her children's lives. She was good and probably has the best shot at unseating the presumptive winner Portman, but Julianne Moore, who played her partner, was pretty darn good too.
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole- Apparently she's a really good actress (this is her 3rd Best Actress nomination, she won in 2002 for her role in The Hours), but I'm on the fence as to whether or not she's hot. Call me crazy, but I'm going with not.
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone- She's 20 and she's a babe, but she's not going to win. Not for nothing she becomes the first ever Best Actress nominee born in the '90's.
Natalie Portman in Black Swan- Portman plays a veteran ballerina cast to play the lead role in Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake in which she has to exhibit two different personas. She dives head first into the role and soon becomes bruised and battered both physically and emotionally. Not only is she an almost certainty to win, but she's engaged and pregnant with the choreographer's baby.
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine- Her ex-fiance Heath Ledger posthumously won an Oscar in 2009 for Best Supporting Actor, so if she wins on Sunday then their child would almost certainly be destined for greatness…or a drug overdose.
Which actress should win? Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Which actress will win? Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in The Fighter- Bale is scary good in this film. Not only did he lose 35+ pounds for the role. He also has a better Boston accent than Mark Wahlberg and Bale is English. Also, the brother of the man he portrays has said that Bale is more Dicky than Dicky. I'm not sure if I've ever seen a better supporting performance in my life.
John Hawkes in Winter's Bone- Who would ever have thought that Kenny Powers' brother would be nominated for an Academy Award?
Jeremy Renner in The Town- The star of last year's Best Picture winner is the only nominee from the latest Ben Affleck joint. The Town is very entertaining, but I'd have to say that it's also a little overrated. And you know how much I love Affleck.
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right- Ruffalo plays a sperm donor who is tracked down by his biological children. Over the course of a summer he becomes a significant figure in their lives, as well as the lives of their moms, but he eventually lets them down.
Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech- If not for Christian Bale's once in a lifetime performance this would be Rush's award to lose.
Which actor should win? Christian Bale in The Fighter and Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech
Which actor will win? Christian Bale in The Fighter
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in The Fighter- I love Amy Adams and I loved The Fighter, but I didn't think that she was that great in it.
Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech- I haven't seen her since Fight Club, so it was nice to know that she's still in the game, but I also recently found out that she's married to Tim Burton which is a little lot weird to me.
Melissa Leo in The Fighter- She plays the mother-manager-matriarch of a boxing family in Massachusetts. She is both stubborn and destructive as she clearly favors one son to another while trying to convince the son she favors less to see things her way. She should win this award easily.
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit- 1.) She was the protagonist/lead actress. Literally on the screen for 98% of the film. There's no way that you could convince me that she was in any way a "supporting actress". 2.) She's 14 years old. Grow up Peter Pan.
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom- I knew that the Disney Theme Park was just a movie set and that the tigers and lions on the safari ride were fake. You can't fool me Mom and Dad.
Which actress should win? Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Which actress will win? Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Last year I also previewed and predicted the Best Director winner because of the James Cameron/Katherine Bigelow sub-plot. Well I successfully predicted that Bigelow would win, so let's ride the momentum and try to go for two in a row.
Best Director (otherwise known as the 5 movies that would have been nominated for Best Picture if the Academy didn't expand to 10 only because The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008)
Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan- I think he should win going away for this reason and this reason alone. He puts the audience in the mind of the protagonist. We feel and experience virtually everything that Natalie Portman's character does. There's this overriding, palpable sense of tension hanging in the balance throughout the entire film. When she pulls skin off her own back we wince in pain, when she becomes delusional we are confused, and when she finally experiences her release we do as well.
David O. Russell for The Fighter- I gotta give it up to Russell for the way he intertwined the fight scenes with other moments that were key in plot development. My favorite scene of the year in any film (outside of the Natalie Portman/Mila Kunis sex scene) is when Dicky is in jail talking to his mother on the phone while Mickey is getting his ass kicked in a fight.
Tom Hooper for The King's Speech- Apparently this movie was filmed on a gay porn set, so let's hope that Hooper doesn't win.
David Fincher for The Social Network- I think the star of the film is really Aaron Sorkin's screenplay filled with its incendiary dialogue, but Fincher is going to get a lot of love for the way he told the story visually both inside and outside the board room.
Joel and Ethan Coen for True Grit- Plain and simple, The Academy has a raging hard on for the Coen brothers.
Darren Aronofsky
Which director should win? Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
Which director will win? David Fincher for The Social Network
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