NFL picks- Week 1

A girl I went to college with, and a friend of the blog, hates football. It’s pretty amazing that we still talk considering the fact that football is so crucial to my occupation. Last year she was in an NFL pick’em pool where she had to pick every game of the NFL season against the spread. Naturally she leaned on my football acumen pretty heavily in making her picks. And by leaned on heavily I mean that she made me email her my picks every Friday and then sent them in. Through Week 8 (I stopped keeping track/she sort of abandoned the whole endeavor) I was 56-55-5 against the spread. Those numbers may not look that impressive, but I was pretty happy with them. Picking games against the spread, especially NFL ones, is no easy task. I’ve heard that if you can go 58% consistently then you can make a pretty good living just betting on sports. The problem, of course, is that everything thinks that they can.

I’m fully aware that I cannot. In fact, my buddy ran a college basketball pick’em pool a few years back and I finished dead last among 25-30 participants. I also routinely finish toward the bottom of NCAA Tournament pools. Despite working in sports media I have a very poor track record for picking games. I did win an NFL pick’em pool back in college, but it was just winners, not against the spread, so it doesn’t really count.

Now that I’ve sufficiently set the bar low it’s time to announce that I plan on posting my NFL picks every Friday right here on The Shampoo Effect. I will use the lines from scoresandodds.com (only seems appropriate) and will be honest about my picks on Thursday games. My one and only goal is to finish the year at or above .500.

And now without further ado. My Week 1 picks (my picks are on the left)...

Cowboys +4 @ NY Giants- I know what you’re thinking. There’s no way that the Stan Man, a Giants fan, picked the Cowboys in last night’s game. A defending Super Bowl champion hadn’t lost their season opener since the ’98 Broncos. Here’s the thing. I didn’t think that the Giants would lose. In fact, I was very confident that they’d find a way to pull it out last night, but I didn’t think that they’d cover the 4 points. This was one of those games where no one, and I mean no one, even gave the Cowboys a shot. This bothered me greatly. I prefer to see analysts pick against my favorite teams.

@ Bears -9.5 vs. Colts- I’m very high on the Bears this year. The last time Jay Cutler and Matt Forte were healthy for a full season they ended up in the NFC Championship Game. Throw in Brandon Marshall and the monsters of the midway might have something cooking. Chicago’s offensive line still blows (when Kristin Cavalarri got pregnant everyone in Chicago was saying, “Just another example of Jay Cutler’s protection breaking down.”) and their defense is old, but they’re going to run all over an inferior Colts team and welcome Andrew Luck into the NFL with at least 2 interceptions.

Eagles -8.5 @ Browns- The Eagles always worry me because they could either win 35-10 or lose 16-13. 8.5 is a lot to lay down, but the Browns are dreadful. They’re playing without their best defensive player (Joe Hayden), their stud rookie running back has an injured knee, and they’re starting a 28-year-old rookie quarterback with red hair. Andy Dalton has already staken claim to the “Red Rifle” nickname, so there’s no way that Brandon Weeden has a productive year, right?

Bills +3 @ NY Jets- The only thing more embarrassing than ESPN’s coverage of Tim Tebow is the Jets offense. I know that you shouldn’t read too much into the preseason, but the Jets have zero offensive weapons. The Bills have two in Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson, who just so happens to be the only wide receiver to put up consistent numbers against Darrelle Revis. Oh, and remember the Jets’ right tackle issues? Yeah, good luck blocking Mario Williams.

@ Saints -7 vs. Redskins- I doubted Cam Newton last year too, so RGIII could certainly prove me wrong, but I can’t take a rookie QB on the road in Week 1. Plus, how amped up are the Saints going to be to get on the field after the off-season that they had? The Redskins defense is solid, but I can see Brees and company putting up 30+.

Patriots -6 @ Titans- I’ll be surprised if this line isn’t at -7.5 by Sunday. Seriously, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick against a kid who’s making his first NFL start at quarterback?

@ Minnesota -4 vs. Jaguars- In a battle of 2^nd year quarterbacks you take the one at home. It’s really as simple as that. Besides, Gabbert’s a pussy and Ponder can run a little bit.

@ Texans -13 vs. Dolphins- You watched HardKnocks. Do you think the Dolphins have a prayer in this one? Is a rookie QB who doesn’t know the divisions and thinks a cardiologist gives prostate exams really going to cover against one of the top defenses in the league? Yeah, no chance. Lay the points.

@ Detroit -7.5 vs. Rams- Another year and another offensive scheme for Sam Bradford. I’m starting to feel bad for the kid. This pick is more about a lack of talent on the Rams than it is about the Lions. I don’t expect Detroit to be nearly as good as they were last year, but they’re too explosive not to cover in this one.

@ Chiefs +3 vs. Falcons- Why does everyone have a hard on for Matty Ice and the Falcons this year? Last season the Falcons played Week 1 on the road and got thrashed by the Bears 30-12. Now I’m not calling the Chiefs the Bears, but they do get Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, and Tony Moeaki back from injury and they’ve added Peyton Hillis to complement Charles in the backfield. Arrowhead is going to be crazy on Sunday and I think the Chiefs will walk away with the win.

@ Packers -5 vs. 49ers- We know one thing for sure, Vernon Davis is going to cry win or lose. In the battle of the league’s top offense against the league’s top defense I’ll go with the best player in the sport.

@ Cardinals +3 vs. Seahawks- John Skelton is 6-2 as a starter in the NFL. Russell Wilson, despite the verbal fellatio by the media, is 0-0. I’ll take the home dog. Plus, the Cardinals will have the best player on the field on Sunday in Larry Fitzgerald.

@ Bucs +2.5 vs. Panthers- Ryan Kalil and the Panthers might have to suspend that Super Bowl parade. I know the Bucs have a new coach, new running back, etc., but why am I supposed to love Carolina this year? Yes, Cam Newton was awesome last year, but the team still went 6-10. I’ll go with Josh Freeman and the Bucs to win outright at home in Week 1.

 

@ Broncos -1.5 vs. Steelers- The Broncos beat the Steelers in Mile High with Tebow last year, so who’s to say that they can’t do it with Peyton Manning under center? Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t getting any younger and Big Ben can only mask their offensive line problems so long. #18 (I’m usually against this unless it involves Matt Saracen, but I think it works for Peyton) wins his debut in Denver going away 27 to 16.

Bengals +6 @ Ravens- The Ravens have won the last 3 meetings with the Bengals and I think they’ll get the win on Sunday night, but I’m taking the points. The Bengals are getting better while the Ravens are getting older. The Bengals finished last season 7^th in defense and have definitely upgraded their offense in the off-season. They got better at RB with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, added another WR by drafting Mohamed Sanu, and should see improvement from Andy Dalton and budding super stat A.J. Green.

Chargers +1 @ Raiders- Over/under 3.5 times that Chris Berman, who’ll be on the call for ESPN on Monday, says “the Raiiiiiiiiiders”? I’ll take the over there, but a loss for Oakland. I know that the Norv Turner Chargers traditionally start slow, but I have a feeling that I’ll be kicking myself for this pick on Tuesday that Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates will lead the Bolts to victory.