Film's Finest

Why do you go to the movies? I think most people would say to be entertained (I would say to watch the trailers). That makes sense, but I think there’s more to it than going to see a comedy because we want to laugh or going to see an action movie because we want to see chase scenes, shootouts, and limited dialogue. To me, movies are an escape. For two hours (or three if you consider some of the Best Picture nominees this year) we’re totally removed from our daily lives. When we’re at the theater we don’t fret about work/relationships. Our worries are temporarily put on hold because our mind is focused on the screen in front of us.

It seems trivial, but think about it. We don’t check Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram for roughly two hours. In today’s day and age that’s incredible. The only other time I’m free of social media for that long is when I’m asleep.

When we go to the movies we willingly allow ourselves to be taken to a different world. Sometimes it’s not much different from the world we occupy on a daily basis. Other times it’s a world our ancestors experienced or someone’s projection of the world that our descendants will live in. For a few hours we’re totally immersed in that other world and once we’re snapped back to reality we’re left feeling different (in some way) than when we entered.

This Sunday marks the 85th presentation of the Academy Awards, so let’s celebrate the year’s best in film the only way I know how: with fairly obvious predictions. This year I enter Oscars Week having seen 6 of the 9 films nominated for Best Picture. That gives me a pretty solid foundation from which to make my predictions. For those keeping track at home I’m 19 of 22 in my picks over the last four years (6 for 6 last year).

Best Picture

Amour



It’s a French film about old people. No thanks.


Argo



Six U.S. delegates are hiding out in the Canadian ambassador’s house during the Iran hostage crisis in 1979 and a C.I.A. operative (Ben Affleck) hatches a scheme involving a fake movie to get them out of the country. I’m a sucker for politics and all things Ben Affleck, so this movie is right in my wheelhouse. Initially it did not appear to be on the right trajectory to win the Oscar, but it’s gained an avalanche of support during awards season (it won the Golden Globe and SAG) and now looks like the front runner.


Beasts of the Southern Wild



I saw this movie last week and I think it went over my head. A five-year-old girl, your protagonist, lives on the wrong side of a levee on the Mississippi river with her father, who’s ingrained in her a sense of pride for where she comes from. Eventually their environment floods and her father gets sick and dies. Roll credits.


Django Unchained



I’m not a big Tarantino guy, but Django was highly entertaining. A bounty hunter employs a former slave and the two try to free the former slave’s wife from a corrupt Southern gentleman played by Leonardo DiCaprio. The movie is chock full of killing, blatant racism, and terrific acting performances. Django has virtually no chance to win the Oscar, but Christoph Waltz should win Best Supporting Actor (even though he was essentially the main character).


Les Miserables



I have not seen this film, but we were forced to watch a previous version in religion class back in high school. All I remember is that a poor man, named Jean Valjean, steals a loaf of bread and a guard goes out of his way to arrest him for it.


Life of Pi



From what I can tell this movie is like the Jungle Book/Tarzan on steroids. Evidently a boy survives a shipwreck and becomes best friends with a tiger on a remote island. It doesn’t seem like my kind of movie, but one of my friends raves about it.


Lincoln



This Spielberg production focuses on the passing of the 13th amendment to the U.S. Constitution (you know, the one that abolished slavery). It’s highly dramatized, long (it doesn’t drag, though), and has quite a few one liners. I’m glad I saw it, but it has zero re-watchability. I will never see it again or as much as watch on scene on HBO, Showtime, Starz, etc. It was thought to be the favorite to win Best Picture, but there’s been little to no buzz about the film in the past few months.


Silver Linings Playbook



A bi-polar adult (Bradley Cooper) leaves a psychiatric center to move back in with his parents and as he struggles to get back on his feet and adjust to reality he befriends a female (Jennifer Lawrence) who’s going through her own emotional problems. They cope with their respective illnesses together and eventually fall in love. I like Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence a lot, so I had high expectations for this movie, which is never a good thing. Low and behold my expectations were met. Cooper is phenomenal during the first half of it and then Lawrence steals the show.


Zero Dark Thirty



This film is essentially an acted out documentary of the hunt and capture of Osama Bin Laden. I’m into the behind the scenes political stuff, so I was interested all the way through, but plenty of people have knocked the film for its lack of character and plot development. I’m sure there was a little jingoism behind the nomination, but I contend that the movie is truly deserving of one of the nine spots this year. By the way, I still have no idea what the title of the movie means.


Which movie would I vote for? Argo

Which movie will win? Argo


Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook- It’s the best performance on Cooper’s sneaky good resume. Actually, no it’s not. His best performance is, and always will be, Sack in Wedding Crashers.

Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln- He’s so convincing as Lincoln that you completely forget that it’s Daniel Day-Lewis portraying our 16th president. This is his award to lose.

Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables- Apparently he sings a lot, so if you’re in to that, then check it out. I don’t mean to disparage Jackman because he seems like an awesome guy based on the interviews that I’ve seen him in, but I tend to stay away from musicals if I can help it.

Joaquin Phoenix in The Master- So much for retiring from acting, right? This is the one film that I have not seen, but wish I had before the writing of this post. I’ve heard that Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman are amazing and I don’t doubt it for a second. I also heard that the movie makes you think long after you see it, which should be the goal of every filmmaker.

Denzel Washington in Flight- Denzel’s outstanding as an airline pilot who somehow crash landed a plane while he was hammered, but the film falls a little short.



Which of the five is the most likely to get me to see a movie? Denzel Washington

Who’s going to win? Daniel Day-Lewis and if he does he’ll become the first to win for a third time (8 others have won twice).


Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty- She’s definitely an up an coming actress, but this role didn’t really show off her full range or ability. She was good, but her character was simply one note.

Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook- She makes this challenging role look easy. It’s not forced or over rehearsed. It’s subtle, but very impactful. She delivers on all of the biggest moments, as well as the smallest ones. I hope she’s got a speech planned for Sunday.

Emmanuelle Riva in Amour- All I can tell you is that at 85 she’s the oldest actress to ever be nominated for Best Actress.

Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild- Conversely Wallis, at 9 years old, is the youngest to ever be nominated for Best Actress.

Naomi Watts in The Impossible- Watts plays a mother who’s on vacation in Thailand with her family when a tsunami hits. It’s based on a true story. I haven’t seen it, but I’m sure she’s fantastic.



Who should win? Jennifer Lawrence

Who’s going to win? Jennifer Lawrence


Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin in Argo- Arkin plays the producer of the fake movie, which serves as the cover to getting the U.S. delegates out of Iran. He’s not on the screen very much and when he is he’s good, but not Oscar good.

Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook- De Niro plays Bradley Cooper’s gambling addict of a father and he’s really not that great. I think this was just a legacy nomination (like Derek Jeter winning a Gold Glove).

Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master- I assume he’s unbelievably good as the founder of Scientology.

Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln- He’s very good as the influential Congressman Thaddeus Stevens and would be the odds on favorite to take home the hardware if not for the gentlemen listed below him.

Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained- Waltz, who won this award in 2009 for his role in a different Tarantino film (Inglourious Bastards), is great in Django, but he’s basically the main character. I think Leonardo DiCaprio should have been nominated in this category instead.



Who would win if DiCaprio were nominated instead of Waltz? Tommy Lee Jones

Who’s going to win? Christoph Waltz


Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in The Master- It seems like she gets nominated every year for something, but never wins. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.

Sally Field in Lincoln- Mary Todd Lincoln was bat shit crazy and Mrs. Field does a good job of demonstrating that. She probably has the second best odds to win, but you’d be crazy to take them.

Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables- I’d be completely stunned if she didn’t win. I’m talking like Oscar Pistorious when he realized that he killed his girlfriend level stunned.

Helent Hunt in The Sessions- Good to see that Helen Hunt is still getting some work. She was one of the top three actresses going in the late ‘90s.

Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook- She played Bradley Cooper’s mother and while she was solid she wasn’t anything spectacular.



Which of the five would I most like to sleep with in their prime? Helen Hunt, but it’s close. PS- If you don't think I Googled pictures of a young Jacki Weaver you're crazy.

Who’s going to win? Anne Hathaway


Best Director

Michael Haneke for Amour- He has virtually no chance. The foreign thing was cool a year ago.

Ang Lee for Life of Pi- Most likely in the #2 spot right now and making a charge, but I don’t think it’ll be enough.

David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook- Unfortunately I think the actors (Cooper and Lawrence) are getting all of the credit for this film.

Steven Spielberg for Lincoln- I think he’s the favorite because all of the Best Picture buzz dissipated, so voters may have compensated in this category. He’s lucky Affleck got snubbed 9 ways to Sunday.

Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild- Let’s just put him in the “happy to be nominated” department.



Who should win? Ang Lee

Who’s going to win? Steven Spielberg

Oscars Primer 2012

The year in film will be celebrated this Sunday night as the 84th annual Academy Awards will be held in Los Angeles. This, of course, means that it’s time for my annual preview/predictions post. Making predictions this close to the awards is pretty easy, but that’s not going to stop me from gloating about my 14 for 17 record over the past 3 years. Maybe next year I’ll actually challenge myself and make the predictions in the days after the nominations come out. Either way, I had seen 9 of the 10 films nominated for Best Picture before the Oscars last year and I only went 4 for 6 in my predictions (by far my worst performance). This year I’ve only seen 4 of the 9 films up for the biggest award of the night. The frontrunners at this juncture appear to be The Artist and The Descendants. The Artist is a silent film directed by a French film maker about the decline of silent film star in the 1920’s. The Descendants is about a man trying to keep his family together while his world is falling apart. Both films won Golden Globes, but they weren’t matched up as The Artist won Best Picture for Comedy/Musical and The Descendants won Best Picture for Drama.

Although Billy Crystal is back to restore some semblance of order as the host after last year’s Anne Hathaway/James Franco debacle, I think that this year’s show is going to have a foreign feel to it. It won’t be as bad as the NBA Draft usually is, but it will be close.

And now on to my preview/predictions…


Best Picture

The Artist



A silent film star struggles to adjust to the new era of talkies as a rising female actress starts to steal the spotlight. This film is the odds on favorite to win.


The Descendants



Definitely my favorite of the films I’ve seen. In it, George Clooney has to tell his friends and family members that his wife, who he recently found out cheated on him and is in a coma after a boating accident, is dying while simultaneously having to make an important decision about a large piece of land that’s been past down in his family for generations.


Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close



People are really eating up this 9/11 centric film. I, for one, think it looks terrible, but it’s definitely not politically correct to say that this movie sucks because its plot is so tied to our jingoistic culture.


The Help



An up and coming writing decided to write a book about how the African American maids feel about their white employers in the 1960s. This film is definitely the dark horse (pun clearly intended) for Best Picture. After all, it did win the top prize at the Screen Actor’s Guild awards.


Hugo



Believe it or not this film has nothing to do with the famous author Victor Hugo (Les Miserables, The Hunchback of Notre Dame) like I originally thought. It’s a PG film with a child protagonist who’s trying to figure out a message from his late father, so in many ways it’s just like Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, but Hugo was directed by Martin Scorsese.


Midnight in Paris



A Woody Allen film in which an engaged couple go with the bride-to-be’s parents on a trip to Paris. As the groom in waiting falls in love with the city’s nightlife he realizes that he’s also falling out of love with his fiancée.


Moneyball



For starters, I know it’s a nerd thing to say, but the book was better. That said, I’m impressed that a book, albeit a sports one, that was so numbers based was successfully turned into a decent film. I’m also glad that they didn’t alter the ending and have the Oakland Athletics win the AL or the World Series.


The Tree of Life



If someone could explain what the fuck is going on in this movie I would greatly appreciate it. I seriously haven’t seen a movie this bad since Joe Dirt (2001).


War Horse



One of my male friends told me balled his eyes out at this film directed by Stephen Spielberg, so I’ll assume that it’s awful. I’ve disliked people’s fascination with horses for a long time. For example, I never understood the public outpouring when the horse Barbaro had to be put down. How does a horse garner so many fans across the country? Like, who would send flowers to a horse that they’ve never seen in person?


Which film should win? The Descendants

Which film will win? The Artist


Best Actor

Demian Bichir in A Better Life- In this film Bilchir plays an illegal immigrant landscaper (stereotype much) living in LA who works tirelessly to provide a future for his son, but his son gets involved with some local gangs.

George Clooney in The Descendants- Clooney is the odds on favorite to win and if he does it will be well deserved. He nailed his character’s outward stoicism while also revealing the built up angst, anger, worry, fear, sadness, and exhaustion that his character was dealing with internally.

Jean Dujardin in The Artist- Some think that Clooney will edge out Dujardin for Best Actor because The Artist is going to win in so many other categories, but his performance was so unique that I think he’ll come out on top.

Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy- In this film Oldman plays a retired spy who’s brought back into the fold by the British government during the height of the Cold War to figure out which one of their current MI6 agents is actually working for Russia. This movie looks awesome.

Brad Pitt in Moneyball- I thought Pitt’s portrayal of Billy Beane was one of the highlights of the film, but I don’t think it was good enough to win Best Actor.




Which actor should win? George Clooney in The Descendants

Which actor will win? Jean Dujardin in The Artist


Best Actress

Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs- She plays a female servant living in Ireland in the late 1800s who disguises herself as a man. That’s all you need to know.

Viola Davis in The Help- I haven’t seen the film, but I know that she’s going to win. Also, if I'm not mistaken she could be just the second African American woman (Halle Berry) to win the most prestigious award in acting.

Rooney Mara in The Girl in the Dragon Tattoo- The 26-year-old actress with rich football blood played the title role in The Girl in the Dragon Tattoo and she played it well. The character she knocked out of the park is a dark, deft, socially awkward investigator with an axe to grind.

Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady- She plays former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Hence the nomination.

Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn- Back to back years with a Best Actress nomination for Heath Ledger’s widow (they were engaged, so is widow the right word?). Last year it was for her role in the indie film Blue Valentine. This year it’s for playing Marilyn Monroe.




Which actress should win? Rooney Mara in The Girl in the Dragon Tattoo

Which actress will win? Viola Davis in The Help


Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn- Branagh plays an English film maker who struggles to keep Marilyn Monroe in line as his lead actress.

Jonah Hill in Moneyball- He plays a sabermetrician, based on a real person, who inspires Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane to re-evaluate how he builds a baseball team. The film was flawed in many ways (no mention of Hudson, Zito, and Mulder?) and I personally didn’t think that Jonah Hill did anything to warrant an Oscar nomination.

Nick Nolte in Warrior- The man with the most famous mug shot of all time plays an alcoholic former boxer tasked with training his ex-patriot son who’s struggling financially to compete in MMA.

Christopher Plummer in Beginners- In this film Plummer plays an elderly man with terminal cancer who tells his son that he’s gay despite being married to his late wife for 40+ years.

Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close- Originally I thought this was the kid and I was going to rant about how it’s bullshit that he got nominated in this category because he’s the main character. Sydow actually plays a man who helps the kid figure out what his late dad’s message is and he apparently doesn’t speak. He has the word “Yes” written on one hand and the word “No” written on the other. If this fact didn’t prove how terrible this film is I don’t know what will.




Which actor do I want to win? Nick Nolte in Warrior

Which actor is going to win? Christopher Plummer in Beginners


Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo in The Artist- I haven’t seen the film, but she’s the female lead, so I’m going to go ahead and disregard her nomination.

Jessica Chastain in The Help- She plays one of the white women. She has no chance.

Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids- She won an Emmy last year for her role in the CBS comedy Mike and Molly (I know no one that watches that show), but she’s not going to win an Oscar for her role in Bridesmaids. She was funny, but I had heard great things and she didn’t live up to my expectations. Plus, female humor is not nearly as funny as male humor.

Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs- She didn’t even make the first 15 actors/actresses listed on IMDB from the film, so I’m definitely rooting for her even though she’s British.

Octavia Spencer in The Help- She plays one of the black maids. She’s going to win.




Which actress should win? No clue and I don’t really care

Which actress is going to win? Octavia Spencer in The Help


Best Director (or as l like to call it- “The five movies that would have been nominated for Best Picture had the Academy stuck with the format of only nominating 5 films”)

Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris- Woody Allen, who’s 76 (I would have guessed 63), hasn’t won this award since 1978 (Annie Hall) and he’s not going to win it this year either.

Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist- If you direct a silent film that garners this much critical acclaim you must have done something right.

Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life- There’s a 20 minute interlude that looks like a mixture of screensavers from 2003 about 20 minutes into this film that I don’t think I would understand even if Malick was in the room to explain it to me.

Alexander Payne for The Descendants- I think this movie was more plot driven than anything else. I guess it’s a compliment sometimes when you don’t notice the work of the director, but I don’t think that it’s the case here.

Martin Scorsese for Hugo- I’m sure that the film is great, but I get the feeling that Marty, and to the same token Woody Allen, gets nominated so often because of their stature. It’s almost like how Derek Jeter won a bunch of Golden Gloves even those he’s a horrendous defensive shortstop.




Which director should win? Michel Hazanavicius

Which director will win? Michel Hazanavicius

Top 25- Actors

I always used to say that Denzel Washington and Leonardo DiCaprio were 1 and 1A when it comes to male actors. I still think the world of them both, but I don’t think it’s accurate to put them on that kind of pedestal. Case in point, Denzel hasn’t been in a good movie since Dejavu (2007) and that’s a stretch and DiCaprio has never, I repeat never, won an Academy Award. That said, I think it’s time that I accurately rank the best actors in Hollywood much like I’ve ranked the best actresses twice.

Here are the criteria that I will use:

-Talent- How good of an actor are you? Can you play multiple roles? Have you been typecast? Do your performances stand out and have a lasting impact?
-Prestige- Is your name big enough to sell a movie? Does your acting resume stack up? Have you been nominated for, or won, big time awards?
-Exposure- Do I know who your wife/girlfriend is? If so, how hot is she? Are you all over the tabloid magazines? How much are you in the public eye?
-Wealth- What kind of price tag do you have on you? What do you make per movie?
-Recent Activity- What have you done for me lately? When I hear your name can I easily recall the most recent movie that you've been in? If so, was that movie successful?

Top 25

1.) George Clooney- I think you’d be hard pressed to find someone that doesn’t like Clooney. He’s as big of a big wig as there is in Hollywood. He’s all over the news whenever it comes to actors contributing to disaster relief efforts. It’s almost unfathomable because he’s been around for so long, but I would argue that Clooney is still in his prime. His acting resume just keeps getting better. He’s been nominated for Best Actor twice (Michael Clayton (2008), Up in the Air (2010) and should garner another nom for The Descendants (2011), he’s won an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor (Syriana (2005)), and he’s directed some quality films in Good Night, and Good Luck (2005) and this year’s political thriller The Ides of March (2011).

Clooney also deserves a lot of credit for his dating resume. He wisely dates attractive women that are only tangibly famous. He’s always the more famous one in the relationship, so when he runs through girlfriend after girlfriend there is no sob story from the ex because people only her as the girl that dated Clooney.



The perfect illustration of Clooney’s power and fame involves his new girlfriend and former WWE Diva Stacy Keibler. Kebiler, who I want to say was also on Dancing With The Stars, has an appearance fee of $10,000 (absurd, I know). Basically she gets paid 10 large to show up to events and be hot (she has legs for days). Since she started dating Clooney her attendance fee has increased to $25,000. That means that Stacy Keibler became 150% more famous only because Clooney’s taking her to Pound Town.

2.) Leonardo DiCaprio- Not exactly a huge drop from 1 or 1A, but as I noted earlier, Leo’s biggest weakness is that he’s never taken home the hardware at The Oscars. He’s been nominated twice for Best Actor and once for Best Supporting Actor, but has never really been in the discussion to win. It’s almost hard to believe because DiCaprio rarely swings and misses. He once ran off the following stretch in consecutive order.

Gangs of New York (2002)- nominated for Best Picture
Catch Me If You Can (2002)
The Aviator (2004)- Best Actor nomination
The Departed (2006)- won Best Picture
Blood Diamond (2006)- Best Actor nomination

His only real flop was Revolutionary Road (2008) in which he starred alongside Kate Winslet, and I actually thought it was a pretty good movie. He should garner another Best Actor nom for his portrayal of the first director of the FBI in the biopic J. Edgar (2011), but I don’t think that he’ll win. Leo is like the Indianapolis Colts from 1999-2006. They were always good, sometimes dominant, but they could never win the big one.

While Leo has never won the big one for his work on the silver screen he’s more than made up for it with his work off of the screen. He dated various models and actresses in the 90’s, but what he’s done in the past 10 years is virtually unprecedented. He dated supermodel and current Mrs. Tom Brady Giselle Bundchen from 2001-2005 when she was probably the most attractive woman in the world, then moved on to the woman that took her place in supermodel Bar Refaeli and dated her from 2005 until May of this year.



Since May Leo reportedly dated up and coming smokeshow actress Blake Lively.

3.) Brad Pitt- First and foremost, he was married to the woman that’s #2 on my list of actresses, but he upgraded and he’s now married to the woman that’s #1. Pitt has mellowed in the past few years, but he’s often thought of as one of the rock star actors. His celebrity has been off the charts for years. What gets lost in the shuffle of Pitt’s good looks and female conquests is that he’s actually a pretty good actor. He’s not great or transcendent by any means, but he’s certainly above average. He’s been nominated for two Oscars, most recently for Best Actor for his role in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008), and he’ll most likely be nominated for Best Actor for his portrayal of Billy Beane in Moneyball (2011).

4.) Sean Penn- Penn is a polished actor who’s seemingly done it all over the course of his career. From comedy (Fast Times at Ridgemont High) to mentally challenged (I Am Sam) to high drama (Mystic River) his range is just incredible. He’s the only man to win Best Actor more than once since Tom Hanks in the mid 90’s.

He’s also been married to Madonna and Robin Wright (Jenny in Forrest Gump), he’s dated Jewel, and he’s been spotted with Scarlett Johanssen. On top of all of that Penn is like the Bono of actors when it comes to political and social causes.

5.) Matt Damon- Damon is just incredibly likeable. He was the bad guy in The Departed (2006) and the first time I saw the movie I found myself rooting for him. He’s perhaps best known for his breakout performance in Good Will Hunting (1998) and The Bourne trilogy, but he’s been in plenty of other quality films. For example, Ocean’s Eleven (2001) Syriana (2005), True Grit (2010), and I really liked his performance in The Adjustment Bureau (2011).

6.) Colin Firth- His name doesn’t carry a lot of cachet, but the good natured Brit has been nominated for Best Actor in back to back years including a win for his role in The King’s Speech last year.

7.) Denzel Washington- My man. Denzel, where have you been lately? His work in Training Day (2001) and Man on Fire (2004) is iconic, but the best African American actor of all time will continue to slide down these ranking unless he gets it going again.

8.) Ryan Gosling- He’s come a long way since The Notebook (2004). You know that Gosling’s acting ability is legitimate because he’s gotten recognition for his work in indie films. He’s never really had a huge production firm totting his work. He was nominated for Best Actor in 2007 for playing a high school teacher who smokes pot in Half Nelson and he was one of the biggest Oscar snubs last year for playing a deadbeat husband opposite Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine (2010). He’s also having a great 2011 starring in the critically acclaimed action film Drive as well as playing the lead in George Clooney’s political thriller The Ides of March.



To top it all off he's reportedly been dating the sultry Eva Mendes.

9.) Javier Bardem- Bardem seemingly came out of nowhere, but it doesn’t look like he’s going away anytime soon.



He fathered a child this year with his smoking hot wife Penelope Cruz, he won an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor in 2008 (No Country for Old Men), and he was nominated for Best Actor for his work in a film that not many people, including me, have seen (Biutiful).

10.) Johnny Depp- People love Johnny Depp. I am not one of them. Either way he gets paid a boatload of money for every movie he stars in and the public remains fascinated with him regardless of the quality of his work. He is unquestionably one of the most elite actors in Hollywood.

11.) Christian Bale- He can be the lead in a movie (American Pscyho), he can serve his purpose in a movie (The Dark Knight), and he can steal a movie with one of the best performances that I’ve ever seen (The Fighter). He’s also a hot head that I often forget is from across the pond.

12.) Jeff Bridges- What a resurgence for the dude. Bridges won Best Actor in 2010 for his role in Crazy Heart and followed it up with another Oscar nomination for Best Actor this year for his role in True Grit.

13.) Philip Seymour Hoffman- He’s won an Oscar for Best Actor (Capote), but he’s at his best in a supporting role. He was hysterical in Along Came Polly (2004), great in Oscar nominated roles in Charlie Wilson’s War (2007) and Doubt (2008), and I expect him to be fantastic in Moneyball (2011) and The Ides of March (2011).

14.) Joseph Gordon-Levitt- I hatttted him when he was on 3rd Rock From the Sun. In fact, I hated 3rd Rock From the Sun. Gordon-Levitt has come a long way since then, though. He was outstanding in (500) Days of Summer and Inception and I’ve heard nothing but positives from 50/50.

15.) Jeremy Renner- I can’t say that I’m a big fan of Renner. It’s not that I don’t like him, but the Academy seems to love him and I can’t figure it out. He was nominated for Best Actor for his role in The Hurt Locker (2009) and nominated for Best Supporting Actor for his role in The Town (2010).

16.) Robert Downey, Jr.- The only member of the Brat Pack that’s still relevant. Downey, Jr. partied hard through the 80’s, got hooked on drugs in the 90’s, and now he’s back and better than ever.

17.) Mark Wahlberg- I still can’t get over the fact that he originally broke onto the scene as a rapper, but Wahlberg has worked tirelessly to reinvent himself on multiple occasions.

18.) Ben Affleck- Don’t ask me why, but I’ve always been a huge fan of Affleck. He also gets bonus points for being married to Jennifer Garner.

19.) Viggo Mortensen- Easily the most underrated actor in Hollywood. He was awesome as Aragorn in The Lord of the Rings trilogy, amazing in A History of Violence (2005), and electric in his Oscar nominated role in Eastern Promises (2008).

20.) James Franco- Franco has some serious talent and he’s driven to excel across multiple platforms. He was horrendous as a co-host of The Oscars, but his future is still bright.

21.) Liam Neeson- He’s 59 years old and I think it’s safe to say that he’s the best action star going right now.

22.) Bradley Cooper- He’s been everywhere since his breakout performance as Sack in Wedding Crashers (2005).

23.) Jamie Foxx- No, there isn’t a quota that requires me to include more than one African American on this list. Foxx is a badass. Not only is he cool, but he’s won an Oscar and he has a rap career.

24.) Ryan Reynolds- He’s funny, attractive (don’t judge me), and he’s all over People magazine and US Weekly. Reynolds makes these rankings based solely on his history with other actresses. He married Scarlet Johannssen and has been linked to Sandra Bullock and Blake Lively.

25.) Daniel Craig- This list wouldn't be complete without James Bond. That role has enough cachet to almost guarantee cultural relevance.
Others receiving votes: Clive Owen, Paul Giamatti, Josh Brolin, Andrew Garfield, Jake Gyllenahll, Will Smith, James McAvoy, Jude Law, Gerard Butler, Matthew McConaughey, Jason Bateman, Edward Norton, Shia LeBouf, Daniel Dey-Lewis, Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise, Russell Crowe

Oscars 2011

The year in film will be celebrated this Sunday night as the 83^rd annual Academy Awards will be held in Los Angeles. That means that I'm running out of time for my annual Oscars preview/prediction post. For those keeping track at home (me) I am 10 for 11 in my Oscar predictions. Last year all the buzz was centered around the James Cameron(Avatar)/Kathyrn Bigelow(The Hurt Locker) competition for Best Picture and Best Director. Bigelow, Cameron's 3rd wife, bested her former beau in both categories and became the first woman ever to win Best Director. This year there is no self made rivalry, but the Best Picture race is seemingly again down to two. This year's frontrunners are both based on true events. The leader in the clubhouse seems to be The King's Speech which tells the tale of King George VI overcoming his stammer thanks to his unlicensed speech therapist. The film took home top honors at the Screen Actors Guild Awards in late January. The likeliest film to unseat The King's Speech for Best Picture is The Social Network which (loosely) recounts the origination of the social networking behemoth Facebook. Word on the street is that there will be a much younger feel to the awards this year. Much of this is probably just speculation based on the hosts of this year's festivities: James Franco and Anne Hathaway.

With that all said, it's time to hand out the hardware. Last year I had only seen 3 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture before the awards. I went 6 for 6 in my predictions. This year I've seen 9 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture. I'm not sure if I can go 6 for 6 again (I'm only unsure of my Best Picture pick). Let's give it a shot either way.

Best Picture

Black Swan

This film is both physically and emotionally painful to watch, but it's also very good. Good enough to win? Probably not. My brother Pat characterized it in three words, "it's fucked up".


The Fighter



My favorite film of the year because it was real (based on a true story). Boxing movies have been produced ad nauseum over the last 30 years, but this one was less about the actual boxing and more about family, fame, making your own decisions, blind loyalty, and overcoming hardships at every turn.


Inception



An intriguing mind thriller that starred the best in the business (Leonardo DiCaprio) and sparked more cooler talk conversations than any other movie in recent memory.


The Kids Are All Right



A lesbian couple each has a child from the same sperm donor and when the kids grow up and meet the their biological father he briefly becomes a part of their life. Misleading title?


The King's Speech



As my buddy Frank recently tweeted, "The King's Speech is g-gr-gr-gre-great."


127 Hours



The only one of the ten that I have yet to see. That should tell you that my expectations aren't too high. James Franco plays a man who gets stuck in-between a rock and a hard place (literally) for 5 and a half days. I've heard good things, but it has zero chance of winning.


The Social Network



The story of how Facebook was formed. Although many would contend that much of the film is inaccurate it has the potential to be the most influential movie of the year because of the ever growing popularity of the social networking site.


Toy Story 3



A borderline touching tale of growing up, moving on, and discovering new ways to be happy. Absolutely tremendous for an animated film. PS- Yes, I work for Disney.


True Grit



Surprisingly this is not just a token nomination because it was directed by the Coen brothers. A 14-year old in late 19^th century Arkansas is out to avenge her father's murder, so she hires a grizzly, old U.S. Marshall to track down the killer.


Winter's Bone



A 17-year old girl who's raising her younger brother and sister because her mother is a wacko (sits around in the house all day) has to prove that her father is dead in order to retain their family's home and land. Bring a pillow.


What movie should win? The Fighter

What movie will win? The Social Network


Best Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem in Biutiful- I just watched the trailer for this movie and I have no idea what it's about. All I know is that Bardem was a bit of a surprise nominee. Many thought that Ryan Gosling would pick up the 5^th nomination for his role in Blue Valentine. Bottom line, Bardem isn't going to win, but he did just father a child with Penelope Cruz, so at least he's got that to celebrate.

Jeff Bridges in True Grit- If he were to take home the hardware he'd become the 10^th two time winner and the 3^rd to win the award in back to back years (Spencer Tracy 1937-38 and Tom Hanks 1993-94).

Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network- Mark Zuckerberg may have invented the most influential social medium to date, but that doesn't change the fact that he's a big douche.

Colin Firth in The King's Speech- How Firth was able to deliver this constant stammer is nothing short of remarkable. At first I took it for granted, but thinking back it's award winning stuff.

James Franco in 127 Hours- No host has ever won an award of any kind, so Franco's chances aren't looking too good. He definitely railed Anne Hathaway though, so he got that going for him.





Which actor should win? Colin Firth in The King's Speech

Which actor will win? Colin Firth in The King's Speech


Best Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right- Bening plays a lesbian mother who is particularly perturbed by the emergence of the sperm donor in her children's lives. She was good and probably has the best shot at unseating the presumptive winner Portman, but Julianne Moore, who played her partner, was pretty darn good too.

Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole- Apparently she's a really good actress (this is her 3^rd Best Actress nomination, she won in 2002 for her role in The Hours), but I'm on the fence as to whether or not she's hot. Call me crazy, but I'm going with not.

Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone- She's 20 and she's a babe, but she's not going to win. Not for nothing she becomes the first ever Best Actress nominee born in the '90's.

Natalie Portman in Black Swan- Portman plays a veteran ballerina cast to play the lead role in Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake in which she has to exhibit two different personas. She dives head first into the role and soon becomes bruised and battered both physically and emotionally. Not only is she an almost certainty to win, but she's engaged and pregnant with the choreographer's baby.

Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine- Her ex-fiance Heath Ledger posthumously won an Oscar in 2009 for Best Supporting Actor, so if she wins on Sunday then their child would almost certainly be destined for greatness…or a drug overdose.





Which actress should win? Natalie Portman in Black Swan

Which actress will win? Natalie Portman in Black Swan


Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale in The Fighter- Bale is scary good in this film. Not only did he lose 35+ pounds for the role. He also has a better Boston accent than Mark Wahlberg and Bale is English. Also, the brother of the man he portrays has said that Bale is more Dicky than Dicky. I'm not sure if I've ever seen a better supporting performance in my life.

John Hawkes in Winter's Bone- Who would ever have thought that Kenny Powers' brother would be nominated for an Academy Award?

Jeremy Renner in The Town- The star of last year's Best Picture winner is the only nominee from the latest Ben Affleck joint. The Town is very entertaining, but I'd have to say that it's also a little overrated. And you know how much I love Affleck.

Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right- Ruffalo plays a sperm donor who is tracked down by his biological children. Over the course of a summer he becomes a significant figure in their lives, as well as the lives of their moms, but he eventually lets them down.

Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech- If not for Christian Bale's once in a lifetime performance this would be Rush's award to lose.





Which actor should win? Christian Bale in The Fighter and Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech

Which actor will win? Christian Bale in The Fighter


Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in The Fighter- I love Amy Adams and I loved The Fighter, but I didn't think that she was that great in it.

Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech- I haven't seen her since Fight Club, so it was nice to know that she's still in the game, but I also recently found out that she's married to Tim Burton which is a little lot weird to me.

Melissa Leo in The Fighter- She plays the mother-manager-matriarch of a boxing family in Massachusetts. She is both stubborn and destructive as she clearly favors one son to another while trying to convince the son she favors less to see things her way. She should win this award easily.

Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit- 1.) She was the protagonist/lead actress. Literally on the screen for 98% of the film. There's no way that you could convince me that she was in any way a "supporting actress". 2.) She's 14 years old. Grow up Peter Pan.

Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom- I knew that the Disney Theme Park was just a movie set and that the tigers and lions on the safari ride were fake. You can't fool me Mom and Dad.





Which actress should win? Melissa Leo in The Fighter

Which actress will win? Melissa Leo in The Fighter


Last year I also previewed and predicted the Best Director winner because of the James Cameron/Katherine Bigelow sub-plot. Well I successfully predicted that Bigelow would win, so let's ride the momentum and try to go for two in a row.

Best Director (otherwise known as the 5 movies that would have been nominated for Best Picture if the Academy didn't expand to 10 only because The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008)

Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan- I think he should win going away for this reason and this reason alone. He puts the audience in the mind of the protagonist. We feel and experience virtually everything that Natalie Portman's character does. There's this overriding, palpable sense of tension hanging in the balance throughout the entire film. When she pulls skin off her own back we wince in pain, when she becomes delusional we are confused, and when she finally experiences her release we do as well.

David O. Russell for The Fighter- I gotta give it up to Russell for the way he intertwined the fight scenes with other moments that were key in plot development. My favorite scene of the year in any film (outside of the Natalie Portman/Mila Kunis sex scene) is when Dicky is in jail talking to his mother on the phone while Mickey is getting his ass kicked in a fight.

Tom Hooper for The King's Speech- Apparently this movie was filmed on a gay porn set, so let's hope that Hooper doesn't win.

David Fincher for The Social Network- I think the star of the film is really Aaron Sorkin's screenplay filled with its incendiary dialogue, but Fincher is going to get a lot of love for the way he told the story visually both inside and outside the board room.

Joel and Ethan Coen for True Grit- Plain and simple, The Academy has a raging hard on for the Coen brothers.



Darren Aronofsky

Which director should win? Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan

Which director will win? David Fincher for The Social Network

Cursed

I may be in the minority on this, but I don't believe in superstitions, cosmic forces (I'm looking at you zodiac signs), or curses. If something is going to happen then it's going to happen. I don't think you can attribute it to anything other than circumstance.

That said, the notion of curses are rather commonplace in my world. For example, when the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 it was said that they "reversed the curse of the Bambino." Many also believe that the Chicago Cubs, who haven't won the World Series since 1908, are suffering from the "Curse of the Billy Goat."

There's also the "Madden Curse", or the notion that being featured on the cover of the popular NFL video game will bring a player bad fortune (usually by way of injury) for that season. The evidence certainly makes you wonder.



2002- Daunte Culpepper- He would go on to throw 23 INT’s and break the NFL record for fumbles in a season that year.

2003-Marshall Faulk- Knee injuries caused Faulk to miss 11 games over the next 2 seasons.

2004-Michael Vick- Vick broke his leg in the pre-season and missed 11 games in 2004.

2005-Ray Lewis- Lewis missed the last 3 games of the year with a wrist injury and
also failed to record an INT for the first time in his career.

2006-Donovan McNabb- The former Syracuse star tore his ACL halfway through the 2006 season.

2007- Shaun Alexander- Alexander wound up missing 6 games with a foot injury in 2007.

2008-Vince Young- Young injured his knee in Week 1 and eventually lost his starting job to washed up veteran Kerry Collins. For the season Young completed 22 of 36 passes for 219 yards over the course of 3 games.

2009- Brett Favre- Favre led the NFL with 22 INT’s in 2009. He also texted pictures of his phallus to a Jets employee that year.

2010- Troy Polamalu/Larry Fitzgerald- Polamalu missed 4 games with a sprained MCL that he suffered in Week 1 and then missed the remainder of the season after spraining his PCL in Week 10.

Another sports related phenomenon is the surprising number of NBA coaches that have been fired shortly after winning the Coach of the Year award. The Coach of the Year in 2002 was the Detroit Pistons' Rick Carlisle. He was fired less than a year later on May 30th, 2003. In 2006 the top coaching honor in the NBA went to the Dallas Mavericks' Avery Johnson. On April 30th, 2008 Mavericks owner Mark Cuban said Johnson packing. Ironically Carlisle is the current coach of the Mavs.

In 2007 the Raptors Sam Mitchell was named Coach of the Year. He was fired 18 months later on December 3rd, 2008. The Coach of the Year in 2008 was the New Orleans Hornets Byron Scott. He was canned on November 12th, 2009. Finally, the 2009 recipient of the hardware was a man I met just last week, the Cleveland Cavaliers' Mike Brown. He was fired less than a year later on May 24, 2010. Ironically the current coach of the Cavs is Byron Scott.


Former Cavs coach Mike Brown. A great guy by the way.

Although the instances are too spread out and detailed for me to get into I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention the SI jinx.

Now I tell you all of this because all of the rage right now is centered on the so-called "Oscar Curse". What's the Oscar Curse? Well, 9 of the last 11 women that have won the Academy Award for Best Actress have gone on to get divorced or break up with their long term boyfriend shortly after achieving the ultimate honor in acting. The New York Times economics blog recently ran a story about this phenomenon. They found that the Oscar winner for Best Actress has a 1.68 times greater chance of getting divorced than the women also nominated. There is no such correlation for winners of Best Actor.

1997 (The awards are presented in February/March of the following year)- Helen Hunt in As Good as it Gets- divorced Hank Azaria (the voice of many Simpsons characters) on December 21st, 2000.

1998- Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love- broke up with boyfriend Ben Affleck a few months later in May of 1999.

2000- Julia Roberts in Erin Brokovich- broke up with boyfriend Benjamin Bratt a few months later in June of 2001.

2001- Halle Berry in Monster's Ball- divorced Eric Benet on April 29th, 2004.

2003- Charlize Theron in Monster- this one is a bit of a stretch, but she broke up with long time boyfriend Stuart Townsend in January 2010.

2004- Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby- divorced Chad Lowe on May 26th, 2006.

2005- Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line- divorced Ryan Phillippe on November 8th, 2006.

2008- Kate Winslet in The Reader- divorced Sam Mendes on March 15th, 2010.

2009- Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side- divorced Jesse James on April 28th, 2010.

So clearly the writing is on the wall for presumptive 2010 winner Natalie Portman, who is recently engaged and preggers. In fact, I would contend that's its not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. Seriously, I'm surprised that 100% of Best Actress winners don't get divorced. Think about it. For the most part all of these women are gorgeous, but for some reason or another they can't make a marriage last. In many of these cases, the husband cheated. Now why on earth would anyone in their right mind ever cheat on let's say Halle Berry?



From an outsider's perpective that's a great question. Most men would say that there is no way that they'd ever cheat on Halle Berry. So why did Eric Benet repeatedly do it? Well clearly Halle Berry is crazy. Listen, we know that all woman are overly dramatic, but winning the award for Best Actress is certification that you are the craziest, most dramatic woman on the earth.